Covid-19 Modelling

Home World US Australia Austria Belarus Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Ecuador France Germany Iceland Iran Ireland Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands New_Zealand Pakistan Peru Portugal Qatar Saudi_Arabia Singapore South_Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Turkey

For Ecuador as of 2020-07-19, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Ecuador

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 1.830908e+05 cases;

\(\beta\) = 9.381142e-05 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 4.197662e-03 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 1.919864e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 894.647413;

T\(_{inc}\) = 238.227826 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 52.087024 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 1.00e+00, \(I_0\) = 1.00e+00, \(R_0\) = 0.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 5.158320e+03 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 2.82e-02 or 2.8%

Leslie J. Mulder
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder