Covid-19 Modelling

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For Ecuador as of 2020-07-09, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Ecuador

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 7.851912e+04 cases;

\(\beta\) = 5.253511e-05 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 1.431649e-02 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 2.041346e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 202.073034;

T\(_{inc}\) = 69.849545 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 48.987277 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 1.00e+00, \(I_0\) = 1.00e+00, \(R_0\) = 0.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 4.548885e+03 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 5.79e-02 or 5.8%

Leslie J. Mulder
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder