Germany
Covid-19 Modelling

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For Germany as of 2020-07-19, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for Germany

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 1.917922e+05 cases;

\(\beta\) = 7.048987e-06 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 5.867521e-02 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 6.383689e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 21.178053;

T\(_{inc}\) = 17.042974 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 15.664924 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 1.60e+01, \(I_0\) = 1.30e+01, \(R_0\) = 3.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 6.300008e+03 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 3.28e-02 or 3.3%


Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2


Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder