Covid-19 Modelling

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For India as of 2020-06-27, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for India

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 5.869210e+05 cases;

\(\beta\) = 2.759478e-07 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 1.978667e+01 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 5.661846e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 2.860543;

T\(_{inc}\) = 0.050539 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 17.662085 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 3.00e+00, \(I_0\) = 0.00e+00, \(R_0\) = 3.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 1.539083e+04 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 2.62e-02 or 2.6%

Leslie J. Mulder
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
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Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder