South Korea
Covid-19 Modelling

Home World US Australia Austria Belarus Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Ecuador France Germany Iceland India Iran Ireland Italy Japan Korea Mexico Netherlands New_Zealand Pakistan Peru Portugal Qatar Russia Saudi_Arabia Singapore South_Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Turkey

For South Korea as of 2020-07-09, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for South Korea

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 1.129771e+04 cases;

\(\beta\) = 1.719508e-04 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 1.161247e-01 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 3.215643e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 60.412480;

T\(_{inc}\) = 8.611433 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 31.097978 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 2.80e+01, \(I_0\) = 1.90e+01, \(R_0\) = 9.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 8.759902e+02 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 7.75e-02 or 7.8%


Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2


Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder