the US
Covid-19 Modelling

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For the US as of 2020-07-09, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for the US

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 1.048884e+07 cases;

\(\beta\) = 2.059629e-06 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 2.992558e-03 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 1.496414e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 1443.658953;

T\(_{inc}\) = 334.162261 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 66.826440 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 1.50e+01, \(I_0\) = 1.20e+01, \(R_0\) = 3.00e+00.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 7.351241e+04 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 7.01e-03 or 0.7%

Leslie J. Mulder
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder