the World
Covid-19 Modelling

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For the World as of 2020-07-19, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for the World

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 2.229493e+08 cases;

\(\beta\) = 1.138379e-07 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 5.580828e-04 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 2.703082e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 938.931232;

T\(_{inc}\) = 1791.848797 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 36.994805 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 5.80e+02, \(I_0\) = 5.63e+02, \(R_0\) = 1.70e+01.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 3.874078e+05 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 1.74e-03 or 0.2%

Leslie J. Mulder
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2

Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder