the World
Covid-19 Modelling

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For the World as of 2020-07-09, the best fit SEIR model is shown as:

Optimized SEIR model for the current corona virus evolution for the World

Associated operational parameters:

\(S_0\) = 1.435684e+08 cases;

\(\beta\) = 1.323428e-07 (cases days)\(^{-1}\);

\(\sigma\) = 7.977866e-04 days\(^{-1}\);

\(\gamma\) = 2.647803e-02 days\(^{-1}\).

These translate into the more familiar parameters:

R = 717.585289;

T\(_{inc}\) = 1253.468101 days;

T\(_{inf}\) = 37.767166 days.

The additional initial values were:

\(E_0\) = 5.80e+02, \(I_0\) = 5.63e+02, \(R_0\) = 1.70e+01.

As a measure of quality of the convergence of the annealing algorithm, the final error measure was:

\(\epsilon\) = 2.823925e+05 cases; with a relative error, \(\epsilon/S_0\) = 1.97e-03 or 0.2%


Leslie J. Mulder
email: lesm@velocity.ca
401 - 2071 Kingsway Ave,
Port Coquitlam, B.C,
Canada V3C 6N2


Copyright © 2020 Leslie J. Mulder